Tagged: Contests

Baseball Prospectus “Predictatron 2005”

So at the beginning of the season, Baseball Prospectus ran an interesting contest called "Predictatron 2005" Predictatron rules

Predictatron is a contest to try and predict the outcomes of 2,430 regular season baseball games and another two or three dozen playoff games.

GOAL

To predict – as accurately as possible – the outcome of the 2005 season. Using the official ballot, predict the number of victories for each major league team in the year 2005, which teams will meet in the Divisional Series, League Championship Series, World Series and which team will be the World Champion. Your selections as to which teams will make the playoffs cannot contradict the standings in your predicted season! (For instance, you cannot predict a team to finish third in their division with 72 victories and have them in your playoff bracket.)

SCORING

Everyone begins with 1,000 points.

For each victory your prediction is off, you will lose one point. For instance, if you predict San Diego will have 71 victories and they finish with 90, you will lose 19 points. Guessing high or low is equally negative. If you predict a team will have 81 victories, you would lose 4 points if they win 85 games and you would lose 4 points if they win 77 games. At the end of the regular season, the total number of victories by which you missed will be subtracted from 1,000.

THE MORTAL LOCK

In each league, you must pick one team that you designate as your Mortal Lock. This difference between this team’s actual number of victories and your prediction will count double against you. For example, if you pick the Dodgers to win 95 games and they only win 82, you will lose 26 points instead of 13. Important: You must designate as your mortal lock a team you are predicting to win either 90 or more games or 72 or fewer games.

You start gaining points back in the playoffs.

For every team you predicted to make the playoffs that actually does make the playoffs, you get 2 points. (Note: here you catch a break. If you predict a team to win their division and they are, instead, the wildcard team (or visa versa), you still get the 2 points. By not selecting them in the right order, however, you might lose the opportunity to make extra points in the later rounds, based on the manner in which they advance.)

For each team you select correctly to go on to the LCS, you get 4 points.

For each team you select correctly to go on to the World Series, you get 8 points.

For selecting the World Series victor, you get 16 points.

YOUR REWARD

The overall winner of Predictatron 2005 will be awarded $500 and a mint-condition, signed, framed photo reproduction of Commissioner of Major League Baseball Bud Selig*.

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So, how did I do …. ? 

# User Score
1 macroferg 859
2 yankeejimmer 857
3 cadmiumdawn 856
4 adamshapiro 855
5 dankohler23 855
6 genadig 853
7 atsmith 852
8 cpummer 852
9 jabuchman 852
10 Deadwoodchuck 849
<…>
169 watsonj 826
170 emacey 826
171 murph0012 826
172 colbylee 826
173 dreaming 826
174 dianagramr 825
175 fyopyfyopy 825
176 assface 825
177 nfeuerer 825
178 oddjob 825
179 drewk68 825
<…>
1083 asaallen 723
1084 jeremyf 723
1085 BryanKA1865 721
1086 seanshanks 720
1087 strake 713
1088 lilsara20 705
1089 ericroush 703
1090 pjbarry 699
1091 trismccall 698
1092 jpease 694

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Not too shabby, finishing in the top 15% overall.  I even beat out the majority of BP writers. 🙂

Let’s look at my pre-season ballot, and where I went wrong …

Team Your Guess Projected Difference Prediction Notes Score Playoff Points
ANA 96 95 1 World Series Champion -1 +2 +4
ARI 73 77 4 -4
ATL 85 90 5 -5
BAL 75 74 1 -1
BOS 97 95 2 Division Series Winner -2 +2
CHA 81 99 18 -18
CHN 89 79 10 Division Series Winner -10
CIN 81 73 8 -8
CLE 85 93 8 -8
COL 69 67 2 -4
DET 78 71 7 -7
FLO 88 83 5 -5
HOU 74 89 15 -15
KCA 68 56 12 -24
LAN 88 71 17 Made Playoffs -17
MIL 71 81 10 -10
MIN 88 83 5 Made Playoffs -5
NYA 94 95 1 Made Playoffs -1 +2
NYN 79 83 4 -4
OAK 85 88 3 -3
PHI 92 88 4 Made Playoffs -4
PIT 69 67 2 -2
SDN 86 82 4 -4
SEA 73 69 4 -4
SFN 76 75 1 -1
SLN 97 99 2 League Champion -2 +2 +4
TBA 71 67 4 -4
TEX 76 79 3 -3
TOR 78 80 2 -2
WAS 68 81 13 -13
TOTAL SCORE: +1000 -191 +16

dianagramr’s score: 1000 – 191 + 16 = 825

For the sake of space, I’ll only comment on those I missed +/- 5 games:

Team

Guess

Actual

Diff

Comments

CHA

81

99

18

No one … no one  … expected this kind of season from the Sox.  Their pitching exceeded everyone’s wildest expectations, and with just enough power and timely hitting, they rolled to the Series.

HOU

74

89

15

I thought the loss of Beltran, Berkman (for the first month or so) and the Bagwell shoulder problem would sap all their offense.  Well, the pitching came through big time, and Ensberg put up a copy of his 2003 season.

WAS

68

81

13

Maybe having a real place to call "home", with a happy fan base, spurred them on.  Frank Robinson did a great job.

MIL

71

81

10

The youth movement (Weeks, Fielder and others) led the charge.  Derrick Turnbow was quite a find.

CLE

85

93

8

We KNEW they could hit.  We didn’t think they’d pitch as well as they did.  THIS is a team to watch in 2006.

ATL

85

90

5

Bobby Cox, and all those farmhands!!

DET

78

71

-7

Ivan Rodriguez slipped badly, and there wasn’t enough bench depth to make up for the injuries.

CIN

81

73

-8

The Reds played the first half of a year in a coma.  The second half could presage a nice 2006 in a highly-competitive NL Central.

CHN

89

79

-10

Injuries to Nomar, Walker, Wood and Prior sabotaged the Cubbies chances in ’05.

KCA

68

56

-12

Quite possibly the worst team defense in the last 25 years.

LAN

88

71

-17

Injuries to Drew, Gagne and Bradley, as well as the Hee Seop Choi fiasco and the lack of a real 3B doomed the Dodgers.

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Viagra … don’t call it a comeback

Will the award grow in stature over time?

"Who will win the 2005 MLB® Comeback Player of the Year Award Presented by Viagra (sildenafil citrate)?

Viagra (sildenafil citrate) and Major League Baseball (MLB) are teaming up to recognize the greatest comeback players in the sport — those baseball heroes who have reemerged as stars on the baseball field."

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They tried to award it to Griffey in each of the last three years, but each time … it turned out to be a bit "premature".